Sun当前的市值，Google根本不用付出很多。Sun内部人士在上周抛出了大量股票，而Google股票则遭到了大量匿名回购。这些异常行为通常是在两家企业正在密谋并购事宜、且尚处在初级阶段时出现。Harrison称，目前Google高层考虑的不是价格问题，而是如何将两家企业的文化融为一体。
Is Google About To Buy Sun Microsystems?
February 26, 2006
A while ago, I published on my own weblog a critique of Google's equity price that was very widely picked up by some other blogs, including some of the mainstream online press and investment banks. The essence of the argument was that at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 90, when compared to Microsoft's meagre 20, Google stock was way, way overvalued and that the stock was heading for a plunge. Easy to say with hindsight, but I received a lot of criticism for it at the time of writing in November:
The only way that Google can possibly sustain this kind of price to earnings valuation is to actually deliver a viable desktop software before Microsoft comes out with its challenge next year. If it doesn't, and the price of its shares starts to fall (as it surely will), Google is going to find itself having to split its current stock in order to attract more investors to its equity, a strategy that could lead it to decline further.
The prediction indeed came true: since the time of writing, Google stock has fallen by round 25%.
But they may just go one better than my previous dismal forecast. I'm going to make a unique prediction here:
Google is about to buy Sun Microsystems.
Last year Google announced a potential partnership with the ailing technology giant and has since announced such a deal with Dell - such announcements indicate a need for more technological capacity on Google's part than they currently have. And they could hardly be better placed right now to acquire those capacities.
For one, Eric Schmidt, the current CEO of Google and former CTO of Sun, as appointed by Page and Brin, positions the organisation perfectly in terms of negotiating a reasonable price for the search engine goliath - and with the current market price as it stands, it wouldn't have to pay very much either. Add to this that Google - now firmly in the black - can afford to swallow the negative earnings of Sun at the same time as using their expertise to deliver the much-needed software platform to sustain current revenues and the scenario looks increasingly likely.
As if all that weren't enough, the numerous option excercising and sale of stock insiders at the company have been carrying out recently - only last week, Chairman Scott Mc. Nealy relieved himself of roughly ten million dollars in Sun equity - and it all seems a little too coincidental.
Here's the anomaly. Consider the following three-month trading chart:
You'd never think it but here are the facts:
Google stock has been experiencing a number of non-disclosed acquisitions.
Sun has had investors exiting to the tune of eight figures on a market cap of ten.
Microsoft meanwhile, sits more comfortable than both at a price/earnings way below the industry average and with a product - Windows Vista - which everyone is talking about coming out later this year.
These kinds of anomalies are typical in the behaviour of companies where acquisitions have been strategically arranged and are still in the 'preparation' phase. Google has to do as much of a job in showing benefits of acquiring Sun as it does in proving its own capability to turn things around there - and what better way to do it than show the growth potential of the company it is preparing to acquire?
Anyone who thinks Google can continue its phenomenal growth without a platform to combine hardware, storage, StarOffice, JAVA, and Solaris ought to think again - the combinations are the only competitive advantage that can enable them to trade at a P/E of 100 - and perhaps way above. Indeed, this was exactly what happened in 2000: too many technology companies relied purely on supposed revenues derived from 'wandering customers', rather than delivering the hard substance that drove the bottom line exterior to trends of marketing and advertising. Sun's growth potential is what Google may well be looking to acquire - and that is largely stored in intellectual property, where Google hold their key competitive advantage: translating exactly this kind of property into cold cash.
My guess is that top brass at Google having been laying the groundwork for the cultural integration of the two companies without much concern for the price, which has probably already been hashed out.
As soon as Page and Brin steal this company, they'll have a business model set in place that the market can't argue with. Neither myself nor anyone I know owns any shares in Sun or Google, nor do I intend to buy any - I'm into analysis rather than speculation - but as for latter, I'd rate it a STRONG BUY right now.
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Is Google About To Buy Sun Microsystems?
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» Published on February 26, 2006
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Author: Daniel M. Harrison
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Ping #1
BusinessPundit
February 27, 2006
12:17 PM
Google to Buy Sun?: Daniel Harrison suspects that Google may buy Sun.Last year Google announced a potential partnership with the ailing technology giant and has since announced such a deal with Dell - such announcements indicate a need for more technological capacity on Google's...
#1
Eric Olsen
February 26, 2006
01:48 PM
this absolutely rocks Daniel - thanks and welcome!!
#2
Pseudonym
February 26, 2006
03:07 PM
Google doesn't need Sun to make use of StarOffice (OpenOffice) or Java. Google knows more about how hardware and storage can satisfy their requirements than Sun ever will, and Solaris doesn't add anything that Google can't get elsewhere.
#3
Mike
February 26, 2006
04:25 PM
I think you're absolutely correct. Sun has lately been acquiring Linux companies. This may be a bid to strengthen it's current standing in the OS market before the takeover by Google.
#4
Eric Berlin
February 26, 2006
04:42 PM
Great piece Daniel, looking forward to much more !
#5
Dave D
February 26, 2006
04:58 PM
Hmm, I wonder if that means that GoogleOS could be based on Nexenta (which is Ubuntu/Debian running on the Solaris kernel instead of Linux).
#6
NeiL
February 26, 2006
06:57 PM
Wouldn't Google get more bang per buck in the desktop space by buying Novell, or even Linspire?
#7
.8 on myspace
February 26, 2006
07:10 PM
this is good news 2 my googlitis
#8
Mr. Real Estate
February 26, 2006
07:16 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if Google bought both Dell and Sun Microsystems. If they owned both and had a Google OS, they would then have the total product and be the PC version of a Mac.
-John Mudd
#9
Kevin Hutchinson
February 26, 2006
07:52 PM
Sorry, but I disagree with most of what you've written. On your specific chart points:
1) If the GOOG buyers are not disclosed, how do you know? Seems they are being downgraded right now?
2) See - value investors are buying SUNW
3) The Microsoft (MSFT) price has been static on missed product deadlines and poor MSN performance ...and company founders like Scott McNealy don't offload shares when they are about to be bought out.
Google's mission is to "organise the world's information". Sun's mission is to "solve complex network computing problems". So on the face of it they are a good match-up, and their corporate DNAs both share the anti-Microsoft gene.
But does Google want to own a smart hardware company any more than Oracle might? I think not. But, hell, if you're right I'll eat my hat! (Red Hat that is ;-)
PS I hold some SUNW shares
PPS See for my analysis
#10
svinsider
February 26, 2006
10:33 PM
If Google buys Sun, the weight of a sinking ship will only drag Google down.
#11
Mike
February 26, 2006
11:12 PM
And what, exactly, does Google get out of buying Sun? They can license Java, if necessary, at a price much lower than putting an albatross like Sun around its neck. Sun's hardware is barely competitive at this point. And I seriously doubt that Google wants Solaris.
So what does that leave?
#12
Alec
February 27, 2006
09:28 AM
Sun's hardware is barely competitive? People fail to realize that when you want a 10tb database there are few vendors who can compete with Sun. I find our company which is globally aligned with Dell on the PC platform is trying to find a loophole to get Sun to replace their pc servers. Sun is closer then ever to having a platform at the right performance/price level for every level of computing (just keep in mind they expect a 50-60% discount on their list).
If Sun could get their act together on management tools I think they'd be back in the win column. The other thing that always is intriguing about Sun is if they reduced their R&D the slightest bit they'd show a profit... They just don't feel a need to show a profit...
#13
Mr. Real Estate
February 27, 2006
09:56 AM
Google's success is because of text ads and a formula that allows them to greatly capitalize from the text ads. See here for details. Text ads can make anything profitable if it receives enough traffic, or users, and besides, Google would likely be unable to create an OS without Sun's technology. MP3 players were losers until Apple created the iPod, and while it's not an MP3 player, technically, all they did is take the MP3 player concept and made it a little bit better. iPods have trouble staying on the shelves. Google would likely have a very similar effect on Sun Microsystems if it were to move forward with an acquisition.
-John Mudd
#14
Christopher Rose
February 27, 2006
10:29 AM
Of course, Google's search algorithm is the real source of their success, John.
Er, that link seems to be broken...
#15
Frank
February 27, 2006
03:05 PM
Okay,so who do I invest in - SUN or GOOGLE?? Which one will make out in this potential acquisition?
PS - Article!
#16
Daniel M. Harrison
February 28, 2006
05:20 AM
Well, this piece is really gaining momentum. My advice?
ST: Sell Google, buy Sun.
LT: Once the takeover is through - if it happens - buy back the stock.
#17
David
March 1, 2006
12:50 PM
interesting story!!! what could be the Sun share price if there is the takeover? Is there any other updates on this story ?
#18
Brian Sorrell
March 1, 2006
05:03 PM
Very interesting prediction.
I agree with some of the above -- that Sun's machines are solid -- but their interface and management tools are weaker than others. Maybe, if you're right, Google is banking on putting their interface skills to work with Solaris?? That might help prop up Solaris' share of the server market and maybe even put them back on the desktop.
