Dear friends,
Now, here is some true, and very scary, information. I have written it in very simple language so that most people here will be able to understand it. Please take care to read it all.
The world's oil reserves are *up to 80% less* than had been thought This is new information just revealed in October and still doesn't seem to be generally known. It is true about oil and gas reserves all over the world. This is really very bad news.
The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change. That is a huge statement.
It may also be very good news. Take your pick.
The bad news is that it can definitely bring on a world famine and many other problems. We thought we had time to get other non fossil fuel sources of energy before 2050. Now we don't have that time.
The good news is that we may not have a "doomsday scenario" of global warming, which would be even worse for the planet than if we had enough oil and gas.
Why do the scientists say that we may not have a "doomsday scenario? Because these fossil fuels that mainly cause it will run out before that can happen. The Upsalla team says that melting ice caps and searing temperatures will never cometo pass from these fossil fuels because the reserves of oil and gas just are not big enough to create that much carbon dioxide.(CO2).
Unless, of course, we must turn to coal again in our emergency. Coal would be even worse for the planet, as it creates even more CO2, so the nightmare predictions of global warming would come about even faster.
When will it happen? Both oil and gas production will hit their maximums soon after 2010 and then decline. At that time prices for petrol and other fuels will reach disastrous levels. Until now it was believed that this would not happen until 2050.
Why are we suddenly so shocked by this new news? Because of previously inflatedestimates about how much in reserves there were. Some countries in the Middle East had exaggerated the amount of reserves they had and other reserves have been reconsidered and re-appraised realistically.
Who brought this information? A team from Sweden's university of Uppsala first said it and it has been confirmed by the Univesity of Vienna.
Should we believe it? This news has already been accepted by most prestigious scientists and information sources. You can read about it in the magazine New Scientist. Nebojsa Nakicenovic of the University of Vienna who headed the IPCC team said in Russia that it was standing by its figures. He said that the Swedes of Upsalla were "conservative". Data on oil and gas reserves from all over the world were examined. The scientists say "We are facing a very critical situation globally."
Why is famine predicted? Because the fossil fuels for fertilizers and for the energy needed to produce and transport the food will cost too much, so food will either not be able to be grown on poorer land that needs fertilizer, as it is now. Food will cost too much. What fossil fuels there are, will have to be used for very many other things, too.
Many areas rely on Canada and the USA to sell them food and don't grow their ownany more, or have been able to support more population on more marginal lands. Populations have increased, due to the "Green Revolution" that was helped by fertilizers made from oil.
Another great problem facing the USA, a prime food exporter, is losing its water for growing and producing. It is being used up, and there is no replacement source, except Canada, which needs much of its own water, and whose resources will not last at the rate they need to be shared. Foods are being grown all over the world and also on the USA great plains on marginal land that is like a sponge and MUST have fertilizers and irrigation. We and other growers won't have enough of either, and both will be scarce and costly. What about those dependent world customers?
The only thing to do is to try to quickly develop alternative sources that will not bring down the world economy, will prevent possible wars over remaining resources of gas and oil, and will also address the problem of climate change.
The thing the scientists are surprised by is "that people in general are not aware of the decline in supplies and the extent to which it will affect production."
We and our governments must wake up from our comfortable sleep now. We don't have until 2050. The time has come to be wide awake, and to look for solutions. Many of you are young. Most of you are very intelligent, or you wouldn't be here. Your whole future years are at stake. This is the field where finding solutions will bring rescue and honour.
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