Dear friends,
PurpleGreen raised an interestsing topic. She began with:
"Hardly a week goes by without some advance in technology that would have
seemed incredible 50 years ago.And we can expect the rate of change to accelerate rather than slow down within our lifetime."
Why do you think this is happening? What caused this time to be so different from all past ages and centuries?
I will propose an answer, but I would like to know what you think about it first
.
Of course knowledge opens more knowledge. Success opens the way for more success. Why, though, has this kind of acceleration never happened before?
"The developments in technology are bound to have a dramatic effect on the future of work."
They will probably lift the load of drudgery from the shoulders of many of us so
that we can spend our time on occupations more befitting humanity.
"By 2010,new technology will have revolutionized communications.People will be transmitting messages down telephone lines that previously would have been sent
by post.Not only postmen but also clerks and secretaries will vanish in a paper-
free society."
Our fast broadband communications are already sent through telephone lines. I find my own use of the present computer system causes me to generate more paper,
rather than less. I don't want to lose important information because upgraded equipment can no longer read older equipment. This is a very real problem. We will lose a lot of our history because of inability to retrieve it.
Furthermore, imagine what happens to computer files and memories when disaster strikes. What happened to all the information on computers in New Orleans? I think that any kind of widespread disaster will cause vast information loss. The
time will come when a scrap of paper from these times will be of historical interest because there will be so little information available. That is, in fact what 'Abdu'l-Baha, the son of the Messenger from God, Baha'u'llah, said before 1921 when he died. It's a prophecy I expect will come true.
Change will probably erase some jobs as it opens others. For instance the present demand for people who can keep small and large computer systems running smoothly. Another instance is the way blacksmiths were replaced by automobile mechanics when the car succeeded the horse and buggy.
"Even people in traditional professions,where expert knowledge has been the key,
are unlikely to escape the effects of new technology.Instead of going to a solicitor,you might go to a computer which is programmed with all the most up-to-date legal information."
We have detailed books about various kinds of law, forms for personally drawnwills, and still we need to seek the assistance of lawyers because the law is
very complicated and mistakes can be extremely costly and cause great injustice.
For instance, if you use a very good legal will form you can deprive your heirs of much of their rightful inheritance and give away much of your money in taxes, all by mistake. Law often depends on precendents that go back a long way. Until we turn to a form of law that doesn't depend on precedents we will always need lawyers. Then there are emotional issues that make a person unfit to defend
himself, so that he needs a detached and knowledgeable person to defend him. I
don't think we will lose barristers and solicitors any time soon.
"Doctors,too,will find that an electronic competitor will be able to carry out a
much quicker and more accurate diagnosis and recommend by teaching machines far
more knowledgeable than any human being."
Doctors will increasingly depend on computers to keep track of the details of patients' health. They already use the web to access world level research facilities for information.
It has become possible for specialists to perform operations thousands of milesfrom where they are due to equipment that is fine enough to allow them to operatewith full knowledge of the field of operation and the patient's physical responses during surgery. Nevertheless there are other doctors and nurses in attendance at all times to assist the patient and make sure of his security and of the machines' function. Doctors and nurses also have a role to play in giving their patients confidence and hope so that they can live longer and recover more swiftly. There is much more to kind and caring human interaction than we yet understand.
"Most learning will take place in the home via video conferencing." This already happens through internet university classes. However there is usually
the need for travel to the institution for some part of the course.
"Children will go to school though,until another place is created where they can
make friends and develop social skills."
My three young grandchildren don't go to school at all. They are home schooled
by capable parents, (their mother has a Masters in Geography.) They have developed excellent social skills from parental teaching, interaction with friends in
the park playground and with other children at the Brazilian martial arts classes they attend. Also they interact with adults who are customers in their parents' restaurant.
The busy parents still are able to do a remarkable job of using daily life and opportunities to enrich their children's learning through real experience. For instance they find a snail shell on the ground during a walk, so they take it home because it will become the foundation of a child researched lesson about land
and sea snails. They go weekly to the public library with their parents and I've
given them many interesting and informative books for their home library. They are knowledgeable beyond their peers in school, and in addition are unusually
courteous, well-behaved and happy because they have always had both parents nearby from birth. Home schooling began because of the mean treatment, exploitation
and denigrating words of a teacher toward the eldest child. The family was here last weekend so I could see all this again for myself. Eventually the world may return to the system of using tutors.
"What can we do to avoid the threat of unempolyment?We shouldn't hide our headsin the sand.Unions will try to stop change but they will be fighting a losing battle.People should get computer literate as this just might save them from professional extincton.After all,there will be a few jobs left in law,education and
medicine for those few individuals who are capable of writing and programing thesoftware of the future."
You are right that it is important to continue to learn all your life, and it is
important also to be willing to change careers as the needs change. As you have read here, I don't think that there will be few jobs left in law, education and medicine. And I believe that new career opportunities that we haven't thought
of yet will open.
"Strangely enough,there will still be jobs like rubbish collection and cleaning
as it is tough to program tasks which care largely unpredictable."
The Japanese have invented a robot that can efficiently clean or vaccuum your floors. Rubbish sorting is already being done by individuals and companies. I think the growth industry here is re-use. As most people are encouraged in many ways to be clean, thrifty and caring of the environment I think rubbish collection will become easier and more mechanized, too.
There is going to be far more change than any of us expect as people and governments begin to try to remedy the damage presently being done to the
environment. New equipment will be exchanged for old. Damage from naturegone wild will need to be cleaned up and there will be much rebuilding. There will be protective functions installed, such as early warning systems, buildings
that can stand tremendous strain built, and coastal areas that must be protected
as well as possible. There will be the necessary relocation of whole populations. Great advancement must be made in cooperation between governments.
War must be managed and then overcome because wars are obsolete in the face of the dangers from nature herself that humankind has brought about.
Greed must no longer be used to motivate humans to work and buy. Humanity's philosophy of life must change, enmasse. It can no longer be based on greed and power if we want to save the human race from extinction. This alone will take
a lot of careful teaching and motivating and people will be required who understand how to adjust the systems to a healthier way of living.
I think you underestimate the nature of the level of change we are about to face
. Your essay is interesting in that it opens many fields of thought.
Keep writing, dear PurpleGreen, and let me know what you think of my
rebuttal. I hope others will also reply and we can get some good and usefuldiscussion going again.
With warmth and affection for you all, Mary
