The Goldwatcher : Demystifying Gold Investing黄金观察家：解密黄金投资
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作者： John Katz 著
出 版 社：
出版时间： 2008-8-1字数：版次： 1页数： 334印刷时间： 2008/08/01开本： 16开印次： 1纸张： 胶版纸I S B N ： 9780470724262包装： 精装内容简介
Gold is a sterile asset that yields neither interest, dividends nor rentals and costs money to hold, but its price has surged to record levels, doubling since 2001. Why? Who is buying it and what are their reasons? How is its performance linked to the condition of the world economy and, especially the health of the US dollar? And, most pressingly, how can you decide whether it represents a useful way of diversifying your portfolio, an asset you should include in your pension provisions – a good investment or an overvalued bandwagon?
Goldwatcher explains the pros and cons of gold as a twenty first century investment – when investing makes sense, when prices make sense and when they don’t. The book addresses everything the independent investor needs to know about investing in gold. It addresses gold’s history as a repository of value; what drives supply and demand, why and how the US dollar and global macroeconomic factors affect gold price, how experts in the filed of money management see its prospects and when prices are reasonable. Situations are explained in which gold will be invaluable to investors as stateless money that keeps its value even in the worst of times; a niche investment with value underpinned by scarcity; an investment to include in a portfolio to spread risks; and a suitable investment to include in pension provisions.
As unbiased analysts the authors are neither bulls or bears, rather they examine different scenarios that could play out in currency and financial markets, the effects they would have on investors, and what investors can do to protect themselves from adverse developments.
作者简介
John Katz is an analyst, strategist and financial writer based in London. To gain experience and qualifications in the Financial Services Industry he completed the necessary exams to qualify as an approved Securities Dealer and Trader and, while working for a hedge fund in London, was accredited by the United Kingdom Regulatory Authorities. He has contributed articles to the financial press,commentated for business television and is the author of Portfolio 2001 – How to Invest in the World’s Best Companies published by Random House Business Books in 1999.
目录
Contents
Foreword by Dr Marc Faber
List of Charts and Tables
Acknowledgements
PART ONE – DEMYSTIFYING THE GOLD PRICE
1. Introduction: Why Gold?
Unbiased Research
The Stateless Money Franchise
Crisis and Financial Market Risk Insurance
A Niche Investment
Squaring a Valuation Circle
Leading Questions on Reasonable Prices
Credible Analysis and Commentary
US Defi cits and Missions Possible and
Impossible
The Road to Global Economic Rebalancing
Why Gold Makes Sense Now
Insight into the Post 9/11 World and the Jihad
against America
2. The Gold Mining Industry
Gold Mining Past and Present
Rising Costs and Declining Production
South Africa
The Bear Market for Gold in the 1980s and 1990s
Rising Mining Costs and South Africa’s Marginal
Resources
3. Gold Supply and Demand
Part One: Introduction to Gold Exchange Traded
Funds – contributed by Neil Behrmann,
Editor of Exchange Traded Gold
A New Dynamic in the Supply and
Demand Equation
Part Two: Supply and Demand Fundamentals and Swing Factors
Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Growing Investor Demand
Swing Factors Affecting Supply and
Demand
The Washington Agreement
Exchange Traded Funds and Sovereign
Wealth Funds
Do Central Banks Still Need Gold and
does Gold Still Need Central Banks?
4. The Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard
Introduction: The Stateless Money Franchise
Unfi nished Business
The Gold Standard and the Gold Exchange
Standard
Gold in 1980 and 2008
Time Magazine on Bring Back the Gold Standard
Robert Mundell on Gold at $10 000
The Offi cial US Enquiry into Restoring the
Gold Standard in 1982
Overview on the Gold Standard
Turning Points
How the Gold Standard Fared
US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Great
Depression
The Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression
Roosevelt and the Birth of the Gold Exchange
Standard
The Post World War II Bretton Woods Accord,
the Dollar and the IMF
The Triffi n Dilemma and the Gold Pool
Vietnam, Charles de Gaulle, Richard Nixon and
the End of the Gold Standard
Conclusion
5. The Dollar Standard and the ‘Defi cit without
Tears’
The Dangers of Uncharted Waters
The Traditional View
A New Paradigm: The Bretton Woods II Theory
Nouriel Roubini’s Criticism of Bretton Woods II
The Defi cit without Tears
Ben Bernanke
Miranda Xafa
Obstfeld and Rogoff
Barry Eichengreen
Assessing the Risks of a Hard Landing for the
Dollar
This Won’t be Fun
Exchange Rates
US Sovereign Debt Credit Standing
George Soros on the Demise of the Dollar
Standard
Conclusion
6. The Economic Consequences of 9/11 and
George W. Bush
Fire Ready Aim
War Costs without Any Sacrifi ce by Americans
Déjà Vu Vietnam?
Liquidity
Tax Cuts, Defi cits and Debts
‘Implicit Debt’ on Entitlement Commitments
Bush’s Ownership Society: Dismantling the
Barriers to Home Ownership and the Real
Estate Bubble
Borrowings Using the House as an ATM
Budgets, Social Security and Unfunded
Entitlement Commitments
President Bush and Social Security Reform
Bottom Line: Federal US Fiscal Policy Remains
Unsustainable
The Bottom Line: Federal Fiscal Policy is
Unsustainable
The Realities of Implicit Debt and
Generational Accounting
Why We Should Consider Gold
For How Long Will Asians go on Lending for
Americans to go on Spending?
7. The End of Cheap Oil, ‘Chindia’ and Other
Tipping Points to Instability
World Economic Forum Annual Risks Review
The End of the Days of Cheap Oil
Conclusions from the International Energy
Association 2007 Outlook
A Finance-based Economy with Excessive Debt
Dollar Falls as a Tipping Point
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Will Alternative Energy Come to the Rescue?
8. Globalisation & Global Economic Rebalancing
Introduction: Skating on Thin Ice
Financial Imbalances and Global Economic
Meltdown
Protectionism, Mercantilism and Mutual Interest
IMF Engagement on Global Economic
Imbalances
Extracts from Headline Comments from IMF
Staff Report on Financial Imbalances
The $ as America’s Currency and Everyone Else’s
Problem Again?
Scenarios Outlined by the IMF
Outcome of the IMF Consultations
China’s Approach to Growth, Reform and
Stability
Sustainable Development as China’s Priority
China’s Current Account Surplus
Approach Emphasizes Stability
US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s Approach to
Cooperation with China
Can the IMF Avoid Global Financial Meltdown?
9. Gold Prices: Infl ation, Defl ation, Booms and Busts
Introduction: A Crisis of Confi dence
Information Resources Including the LBMA
Annual Gold Price Forecasts
Accessible Information
Drawing the Threads Together
Prospects for Gold
The Refl ationary Rescue
An ‘Anti Risk Strategy’
Messages from History
Price Overshoots
What’s Different this Time?
Gold Price Suppression
A One Way Risk to Prices
Papering Over the Cracks
Do Trees Grow to Heaven?
10. Investing Choices
Bullion, Coins, Shares in Funds and Mining
Companies
Gold Bullion and Coins
Gold Coins and Bullion Bars
Advice from a Coin Dealer
Exchange Traded Funds
Futures Contracts and Increased Risk Reward
Exposure with all Derivatives
Gold Mining Shares and Gold Funds
Investing in Gold Mining Shares and Gold Funds
Timing and Strategies
Taxation
‘How to’ Resources for Trading and Monitoring
Eagle Wing Research on Gold Funds
PART TWO – GOLD INVESTING STRATEGIES
BY FRANK HOLMES
11. Inside U.S. Global Investors
Our Golden Rule: Moderation
How We Work
12. Investing in Gold Equities
What’s Driving Gold?
The Investing Universe
Gold Stock Funds
The Return on Capital Model
The Five Ms
Managing Volatility
Correlation
Gold Seasonality
13. Gold Mining Opportunities and Threats
Geographical Shift
Gold Production Peak
Exploration Spending
Industry Consolidation
Rising Operating Costs
Summary
PART THREE – APPENDIX
Fact Book
Chart Book
Gold: Chronology
Notes
Bibliography
Webliography
Index
