最近，Blog服务提供商Weblogs公司首席执行官Jason McCabe Calacanis发表了他对2006年网络并购市场的看法，Weblogs刚刚被时代华纳收购。他认为2006年全球互联网界将发生数起重要的并购案，Google的股价将出现一次爆跌。
首先，Cnet可能将被雅虎或者新闻集团收购，市场已经有很长时间的传闻。而且Cnet的CEO也公开表示公司出售是一个可选项。现在的问题就是Cnet股价已经上涨，有点贵，所以还没有买家出现。新闻集团收购的下一个Blog网站将是Gawker。而且，新闻集团很可能分拆网络业务单独上市。
他还预测纽约时报这样的传统媒体集团将发展blog业务，并可能裁员10-20%，以着眼于扩张网络业务，纽约时报有可能会收购最著名的IT社区Slash。他认为：Cnet有可能收购另外一个著名的、新兴的IT社区DIGG，而Cnet本身可能被雅虎、新闻集团收购。著名的数码社区Engadget则将获得华尔街日报个人科技专栏作家Walt Mossberg等重要人物加盟。
在Blog网站方面，他认为，市场太拥挤了，30-50个Blog网站将出局或者倒掉，仅剩1-2个Blog网站的流量能够超过2000万PV每月。
2006年，将是Blog网站面临严峻生存压力的一年，半数的Blog搜索服务商、以及半数的RSS订阅服务商都将倒闭。
对于播客网站，他认为在2006年，它们不可能取得什么重大的进步，但是也许会提供还不错的产品或者服务。
以下是他的具体预测：
My Predictions for 2006
1. Someone will do the Wikipedia version of Weblogs, Inc. and and it will fail because it never reaches critical mass.
2. 30 of the 50 blog networks will fizzle out and/or die. Only one or two (other than Gawker) will break 20M pages a month. The blog network space is just way too crowded, and if you can't go big at this point you're gonna have a real hard time doing a *real* network (say 20 blogs or more). Now, you'll do just fine if you stay focused on a narrow niche that you can own.
3. Metblogs and Gothamist will both raise venture or seed capital.
4. DIGG will be bought by CNET.
5. CNET will be bought by Yahoo or Fox Interactive/Newscorp.
6. Newscorp (and maybe some other folks) might spin out their Interactive assets and take them public.
7. New York Times will cut the newsroom staff by 10-20% and face another Jayson Blair/Judith Miller-style scandal. However, advertising on their website will be oversold. They will launch gadget, car, personal finance, and video game blogs that will do OK.
8. Google's stock will take it's first significant hit (>15% drop) at some point during the year, but not because of their earnings but rather some outside factor (think advertising slow down, terrorist attack in the US, tech bubble bursting, etc). Google's stock will end the year basically flat (+/-10%) while their earnings soar.
9. Google Adsense for Podcasts and/or Video will debut in Q2/Q3 of 2006--Yahoo and Microsoft will follow shortly after that.
10. Half of the indie blog search engines will shut down, go out of business, or just stagnate as the major portals take over this space.
10.B No blog search engines will be bought in 2006 because every major buyer has already built one.
11. Half of the indie RSS readers will shut down, go out of business, or just stagnate as the major portals take over this space.
11.B No RSS readers will be bought in 2006 because every major buyer has already built one.
12. No podcasting company will have any significant success in 2006, but a number of podcasters will be offered great jobs at Sirius and XM Radio.
13. The housing bubble will deflate/burst (it's much worse now than people are saying) and consumer confidence and spending will be moderately shaken. This will create a pullback in consumer advertising which will result in a cooling of the media/Web 2.0 space and another round of main stream media layoffs (think magazines, newspapers, etc).
14. If there is a terrorist attack in the US and/or if oil prices shoot up again the slow down above will turn into a very serious recession. Folks will stop trying to build companies and start looking for a paycheck--Web 2.0 meme dies.
15. Sirius will hit 5M subscribers by the end of the year due to Howard Stern's massive success in drawing new subscribers (note: I own a small amount of Sirius stock in my retirement account, AOL has a deal with SiriusXM--AOL bought my company Weblogs, Inc., and I've been a fan of Howard Stern for 20 years).
16. Gawker will hit 20 blogs and get bought by Newscorp--Nick Denton will keep Fleshbot and retire for the third time before spinning the Fleshbot into an ipod video service claiming all the while that "there's no business in it."
17. After obsessing over Google for years while writing The Search, John Battelle sells his Federated Media network to the them. He spends his days playing beach volleyball and holding salons in the cafeteria--life is good.
18. Walt Mossberg will join the Engadget team.
19. MySpace will host an awards show on MTV or Spike.
20. Some new editorial format/meme/buzzword claiming to be the evolution of blogging will emerge.
OK... have at it in the comments!
