第六感：强化组织学习的情景训练法 THE SIXTH SENSE - ACCELERATING ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING WITH SCENARIOS
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作者： Kees van der Heijden著
出 版 社： John Wiley & Sons
出版时间： 2002-12-1字数：版次： 1页数： 307印刷时间： 2002/12/01开本：印次：纸张： 胶版纸I S B N ： 9780470844915包装： 精装内容简介
This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it.
Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?'
Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time.
This book explains:
Why scenario thinking is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations.
How scenarios are valuable in overcoming an obstacle or problem - current or potential - by enabling innovation and creative thinking 'outside the box'.
How scenario thinking can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.
How to understand the scenario approach in the context of effective organizational learning and development.
How to ensure that scenario thinking is included in a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival.
Outlining the benefits and techniques of scenario thinking The Sixth Sense shows that scenario thinking is purposeful and effective in driving strategy and organizational development towards managerial and organizational success.
作者简介
Kees van der Heijden (Scotland) is Director of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde, U.K.
目录
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
INTRODUCTION
The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future
Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future
The Significance of Scenario Thinking
Developing the Sixth Sense-the Approach to Scenario Thinking
How this Book is Organized
1.PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE
Understanding Organizational Success
Success and Failure are Inevitable
Understanding success by understanding failure
Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail
Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems
Sustaining Competitive Advantage-the Battle of Canon and Xerox
Yahoo!-Competing in Fast-moving Markets
Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick-the Story of Lego
Success Stories
Providing Customer Value-the Rise of Tetra Pak
Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth-Nokia Answers the Call
Barriers to Strategic Success
Lessons Learned
Creating Value-The Difference Between Success and Failure
Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity
Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning
2.HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE
Understanding Management Thinking
Routines in Management Thinking
Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking
Biases in thinking
The Relevance of Framing Flaws
How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke
Confirmation Bias
Hindsight Bias
The Problem of Overconfidence
The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting
Decision Avoidance
Escalation of Commitment
Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing
Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma
Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis
Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning
A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future
Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future
Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold
Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process
Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning
Summary Checklist-the Limits to Managerial Thinking
3.HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE
Flaws in Organizational Thinking
Communication Difficulties
Group-think in Organizations
Fragmentation in Organizations
Limitations Imposed by Identity
Balancing Change and Constancy
Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM
Organizational Lock-in
Understanding Organizational Lock-in
The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in
……
4.THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY
5.SHAPING THE FUTURE:THE EMERGENCE OF MODERN SCENARIO TECHNIQUES
6.DEVELOPING THE SKILLS FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS:PRINCIPLES OF THE SCENARIO PROCESS
7.SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT
8.SCENARIO PLANNING:TAKING CHARGE OF THE FUTURE
SUMMARY
GLOSSARY
REFERENCES
INDEX
