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　　分類: 图书,管理,战略管理,

作者： Robert Kast著

出 版 社： John Wiley & Sons

出版时间： 2006-12-1字数：版次： 1页数： 232印刷时间： 2006/12/01开本：印次：纸张： 胶版纸I S B N ： 9780470015773包装： 精装编辑推荐

作者简介：

Professor ROBERT KAST has a research position at LAMETA-CNRS, University of Montpellier (France) and has published papers and books in decision theory and financial market theory.

内容简介

This book uses real-world examples to show how individual and collective risks can be blended and treated in a reliable decision-making framework that draws its inspiration from decision theory and market based mechanisms. It then goes into deeper detail by looking at the implications of having to face risks (a) where some kind of probabilistic description is available and (b) where none is available, using the example of insurable risks vs non-insurable risks. Again, by using real-world examples it shows how decision-makers can cope with such situations by a proper understanding and use of modern financial techniques.

目录

Acknowledgements

General Introduction

Financial assets

Risks

Uncertainty and precaution

Problems: new methods and new instruments

Presentation of the book

PART I: INDIVIDUAL vs COLLECTIVE CHOICE Introduction to Part I

1 Risks in a Public Project: The Millau Viaduct

2 Individual Valuations and Economic Rationality

2.1 Preferences on consequences and utilities of decisions

2.2 Decisions, acts and contingent assets

2.3 Criterion and individual valuation: averaging

2.4 A simple decision theoretic model

2.5 A general criterion of individual valuation

2.6 The two main criteria for decision-making in front of a known probability distribution: Paradoxes and limitations

3 Aggregation of Individual Choices

3.1 Public choices

3.2 Market aggregation of individual preferences

4 Individual and Collective Risk Management Instruments

4.1 Decision trees

4.2 Optimisation under constraints: mathematical programming

4.3 Risk and cost–benefit analysis

Concluding comments on Part I

PART II: RISK vs UNCERTAINTY

Introduction to Part II

5 Insurable and Uninsurable Risks

5.1 Insurance of risks with a known probability distribution

5.2 Insurance of risks with uncertainties

5.3 Non-insurable risks

6 Risk Economics

6.1 Laws of large numbers and the principles of insurance

6.2 Risk aversion and applications to the demand for insurance 1

6.3 Background risk

6.4 Risk measures: variance and Value at Risk

6.5 Stochastic dominance

6.6 Aversion to risk increases

6.7 Asymmetric information: moral hazard and adverse selection

7 Marketed Risks

7.1 A general theory of risk measurement

7.2 Applications to risk valuation

8 Management Instruments for Risk and for Uncertainty

8.1 Choosing optimal insurance

8.2 Insurance claims securitisation

8.3 Valuing controversial risks

Concluding comments on Part II

PART III: STATIC vs DYNAMIC

Introduction to Part III

9 Risk Businesses

9.1 Lotteries and the gambling business

9.2 Risks and investments

9.3 Credit risk

10 Valuation without Flexibilities

10.1 The net present value

10.2 Discounting

10.3 Static models of financial market equilibrium pricing

10.4 The value at risk

11 Valuation with Options

11.1 General theory of a dynamic measure of risks

11.2 Applications to risk valuation

12 Static and Dynamic Risk Instruments

12.1 Static risk management instruments

12.2 Managing flexibilities

Concluding comments on Part III

General Conclusion

1 How to deal with controversies

2 Look for market valuation

3 Measuring time

References

Index

 

 

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