The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (平装)
分類: 图书,进口原版书,Business & Investing(商业与投资),Management & Leadership(管理与领导力),Management,
品牌: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
基本信息出版社:RANDOM HOUSE INC (2010年5月11日)平装:480页ISBN:081297381X条形码:9780812973815产品尺寸及重量:21.8 x 11.5 x 2.6 cm ; 332 gASIN:081297381X
商品描述内容简介A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a black swan. "From the Hardcover edition."媒体推荐
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, " On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"