黑天鹅：百年一遇的冲击he Black Swan：The Impact of the Highly Imprbable
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作者： Nassim Nicholas Taleb著
出 版 社： Oversea Publishing House
出版时间： 2007-4-1字数：版次： 1页数： 366印刷时间： 2007/04/01开本： 32开印次： 1纸张： 胶版纸I S B N ： 9781400063512包装： 精装编辑推荐
作者介绍：Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently taking a break as Dean’s Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness, has been published in nineteen languages. Taleb lives mostly in New York.
内容简介
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
目录
PART ONE Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation
Chapter 1 The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic
Chapter 2 Yevgenia's black swan
Chapter 3 The speculator and the prostitute
Chapter 4 One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker
Chapter 5 Confirmation shmonfirmation!
Chapter 6 The narrative fallacy
Chapter 7 Living in the antechamber of hope
Chapter 8 Glacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence
Chapter 9 The ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd
PART TWO We just can't predict
Chapter 10 The scandal of prediction
Chapter 11 How to look for bird poop
Chapter 12 Epistemocracy, a dream
Chapter 13 Appelles the painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict?
PART THREE Those gray swans of Extremistan
Chapter 14 From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and back
Chapter 15 The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud
Chapter 16 The aesthetics of randomness
Chapter 17 Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places
Chapter 18 The uncertainty of the phony
PART FOUR The end
Chapter 19 Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan
Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans
