The Age Of Aging:How Demogrphics Are Changing The Global Economy And Our World老龄化：人口统计特征是如何改变全球经济和我们的世界的？
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作者： George Magnus 著
出 版 社：
出版时间： 2008-10-1字数：版次： 1页数： 321印刷时间： 2008/10/01开本： 16开印次： 1纸张： 胶版纸I S B N ： 9780470822913包装： 精装编辑推荐
作者简介：George Magnus is the senior economic adviser at UBS Investment Bank and has held this position since 2005. Before this, he was the bank’s chief economist with effect from the merger between UBS and Swiss Bank Corporation in 1998, leading a team of professional economists to the highest accolades in the Institutional Investor and other industry analyst surveys. His previous responsibilities involved senior macroeconomic and managerial positions in Union Bank of Switzerland, SG Warburg and Bank of America. Mr. Magnus’ research is widely known and respected in the financial services community and the business media in the United States, Asia and Europe. He was one of very few to articulate at the beginning of 2007 that a major credit crunch in the United States and the West was likely, with damaging and long-lasting economic consequences around the world. He lives and works in London, is married, and has four children.
内容简介
The year 2008 marks the beginning of the baby boomer retirement avalanche just as the different demographics in advanced and most developing countries are becoming more pronounced. People are worrying again that developments in global population trends, food supply, natural resource availability and climate change raise the question as to whether Malthus was right after all.
The Age of Aging explores a unique phenomenon for mankind and, therefore, one that takes us into uncharted territory. Low birth rates and rising life expectancy are leading to rapid aging and a stagnation or fall in the number of people of working age in Western societies. Japan is in pole position but will be joined soon by other Western countries, and some emerging markets including China. The book examines the economic effects of aging, the main proposals for addressing the implications, and how aging societies will affect family and social structures, and the type of environment in which the baby-boomers' children will grow up.
The contrast between the expected old age bulge in Western nations and the youth bulge in developing countries has important implications for globalization, and for immigration in Western countries - two topics already characterized by rising discontent or opposition. But we have to find ways of making both globalization and immigration work for all, for fear that failure may lead us down much darker paths. Aging also brings new challenges for the world to address in two sensitive areas, the politicization of religion and the management of international security. Governments and global institutions will have to take greater responsibilities to ensure that public policy responses are appropriate and measured.
The challenges arising within aging societies, and the demographic contrasts between Western and developing countries make for a fractious world - one that is line with the much-debated 'decline of the West'. The book doesn't flinch from recognizing the ways in which this could become more visible, but also asserts that we can address demographic change effectively if governments and strengthened international institutions are permitted a larger role in managing change.
目录
Dedication
Acknowledgments
Preface
Chapter 1: Introducing a new age
Everyone is affected everywhere
The demographic debate laid bare
Differing prospects for richer and poorer nations
Demographics and other global trends
Endnotes
Chapter 2: Population issues from Jesus Christ to aging and climate change
Population take-off, Malthus, and Marx
Fertility debate gathers significance
Falling fertility, family structures, and modern times
Climate change, food, oil, and water join the fray
Food and oil supplies
Water shortages too?
What happened to the dominant species?
Endnotes
Chapter 3:The age of aging
Global population changes
Your world party guestlist
Three stages of ages
Aging and dependency
What about the workers?
Dependency ratios for the old and the young are not comparable
The demographic dividend for poorer countries
Conclusions
Endnotes
Chapter 4: The economics of aging—what is tobe done?
How the rich world isaging
Will labor shortage scrimp growth?
Is it possible to boost the supply of workers?
Raising participation and immigration
Women to work
Can we strengthen brain as well as brawn?
Working longer to retirement
Youth trends sap economic strength
How much immigration?
Productivity is the holy economic grail
Will we be able to finance retirement?
Saving less with age, saving less anyway
Changing pension schemes
Retirement and savings in the United States
Endnotes
Chapter 5: Coming of age: United States, Japan,and Europe
Aging in advanced economies
Accounting for growth in Japan, western Europe, and America
Removing the sex and age barriers to work Barriers to female employment
Barriers to older workers in employment
Later retirement is more than just a matter of law
A Singaporean model for all?
Who’s for change?
Endnotes
Chapter 6: Will aging damage your wealth?
Will there been enough in the personal savings pot?
Savings patterns and trends in Japan
Savings in the United States
Savings in Europe
Less generous pensions
More self-reliance for retirement savings
Government spending and more public debt
Age-related spending: pensions
Age-related spending: healthcare
Age-related spending in OECD countries
America’s healthcare and public spending explosion
Paying for aging
Fiscal versus fallen angels
Will aging societies inflate or deflate?
Will aging damage your wealth?
Less buoyant returns but new opportunities
Safe as houses?
Prime-age house buyers in decline:who will buy?
Wealthy and healthy?
Endnotes
Chapter 7: Waiting in the wings: aging in emerging and developing nations
Aging faster than rich countries
Demographic dividend and dependency
Asian strengths and weaknesses
Gender discrimination
China—Middle Kingdom, middle age
One-child policy
Running out of cheap labor
Economic consequences
Growing social policy agenda
India and its human capital
An Asian America?
Jobs and skills are what India needs
Russia—a failing petrostate?
Demographic decay
Fading fertility
Mounting mortality
Manpower, military, and immigration
Africa and the Middle East, banking on the dividend
Africa: a distorted dividend?
Reasons to be optimistic regardless?
Stronger institutions, too much HIV/AIDS
Middle East and NorthAfrica—rage, religion, and reform
Basic population characteristics
Angry young men in an unstable region
The need for reform
Believing, not belonging
Don’t hold your breath
Endnotes
Chapter 8: Where globalization and demographics meet
Globalization is the death of distance
Solving the globalization problem via institutions
The globalization “trilemma”
Negative sentiment
Globalization and well-being: the case of HIV/AIDS
For richer, for poorer: marriage by globalization
Conclusions
Endnotes
Chapter 9: Will immigration solve aging society problems?
Rising hostility toward immigration
How many immigrants and where are they?How sustainable is higher immigrant fertility?
Economic arguments are awkward or weak
Short-run effects positive but may not last
Unskilled or semiskilled immigration issues
For some, a brain drain into retirement
Financial aspects of immigration are balanced
Competition for migrants may be rising
Conclusions
Endnotes
Chapter 10: Demographic issues in religion and international security
The secular-religious pendulum swings back
The Pyrrhic victory of secular capitalism
Will religion get us from here to maternity?
Religious belief in the ascendant?7
Secular balance can be sustained
International security
Demographic change and new forms of conflict
Manpower shortages
Endnotes
Epilogue: The Boomerangst generation
The kiss of debt and other sources of angst
Insecurity, inequality, and changing family structures
Conclusion
Endnotes
Postscript: Population forecasting
Index
