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黑天鹅 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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作者: Nassim Nicholas Taleb著

出 版 社: Oversea Publishing House

出版时间: 2008-2-1字数:版次: 1页数: 366印刷时间: 2008/02/01开本: 32开印次: 1纸张: 胶版纸I S B N : 9780141034591包装: 平装内容简介

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

目录

Prologue

PART ONE UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY,OF HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION

Chapter 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

Chapter 2 Yevgenia's Black Swan

Chapter 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute

Chapter 4 One Thousand and One Days,or How Not to be a Sucker

Chapter 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

Chapter 6 The Narrative Fallacy

Chapter 7 Living in the Antechamber of Hope

Chapter 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck:The Problem of Silent Evidence

Chapter 9 The Ludic Fallacy,or The Uncertainty of the Nerd

PART TWO WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

Chapter 10 The Scandal of Prediction

Chapter 11 How to Look for Bird Poop

Chapter 12 Epistemocracy,a Dream

Chapter 13 Appelles the Painter,of What Do You Do if you Cannot Predict?

PART THREE THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

Chapter 14 From Mediocristan,and Back

Chapter 15 The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud

Chapter 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness

Chapter 17 Locke's Mandmen,or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places

Chapter 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony

Chapter 19 Half and Half,or How to Get Even with the Black Swan

Epilogue:Yevgenia's White Swans

Acknowledgments

Glossary

Notes

Bibliography

Index

 
 
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