中国通过继续购买和建造新的军舰和潜艇,改良老化的海军装备,进一步加强海军的战术和战略角色.
具有与西方战舰相比拟的隐身性和高技术特征的快速导弹巡逻艇,登陆舰,护卫舰和驱逐舰都已经从中国的造船厂生产出来.接受采访的汉和防务评论编辑平可夫介绍说:"中国海军预算集中在建造更多的现代化水面战舰,比如象054A护卫舰,并且中国战舰的技术水平正在逐步提高,象新的HQ16和HQ9垂直发射防空系统已经安装在054A护卫舰和052C驱逐舰上面,第三艘054A护卫舰今年已经在广州黄埔造船厂下水""对于具备这些现代化造船能力的中国来说,弄懂如何建造一艘航空母舰是很快的事情"平可夫这样说道.
解放军海军最近已经建造完成了3种新级别的驱逐舰:旅洋/052B,旅洋1/051C和旅洋2/052C."中国分别在2003和2004年下水了两艘旅洋2/052C型驱逐舰,目前没有公开信息显示中国是否决定继续生产这种系列的驱逐舰或者建造新的神盾驱逐舰取代它--新的神盾可能是把一种升级版本的乌克兰主动相控阵雷达技术应用到旅洋2上面,"华盛顿基础国际评估和战略中心副主任理查德.费希尔作以上表述.
俄罗斯向中国出口了很多新的战舰,包括现代级驱逐舰和基洛级柴电潜水艇,这些迹象显示中国将继续依赖俄罗斯海军建造能力."俄罗斯最近没有为中国建造任何水面舰只和潜艇,但据传闻俄罗斯很可能将把它唯一的一艘Zubr大型两栖攻击气垫船,大量的Kamov海军攻击直升机和数量可观的别-200水上飞机出售给中国,并将向中国出售054A护卫舰的舰对空导弹技术,这种护卫舰目前正在两家造船厂批量生产,"费希尔说道.
中国的潜艇计划给美国和日本的共同防务造成了很多麻烦.解放军海军目前有一艘弹道导弹核潜艇--夏级核潜艇处于服役状态,但这艘潜艇火力不足并且导弹射程很短,常规柴电潜艇有基洛级和国产的宋级.这种对常规潜艇优先选择加强了中国声称的建设一直防御性海军的说法,为海军服务的美国辅助决策中心退休专家Mike分析说,"由于常规潜艇活动范围/持续能力受限并且移动缓慢,这些潜艇被当作防务武器是很自然的.重要的是,他们适合在东亚海军的发展,象南韩,新加坡和马来西亚加上日本,台湾,澳大利亚都是使用常规动力潜艇,"MCDevitt说道. 航空母舰问题有许多迹象显示中国正在尝试建立一支以航母和神盾驱逐舰为主体的蓝水海军,那样它将有能力在太平洋上投射其力量并保护从中东至南中国海的油路海运线.
台湾前国防部长,主任林中平引用中国海军教父,著名政治家刘华清话说:"如果中国不造航母,我死不瞑目.",林指出,在1990年代的"航母离开强大潜艇舰队没有实际意义"的争论中,"潜艇学院派"占据主流地位,"潜艇学院派"声称,中国航母没有能力安全突破由美国控制下的日本,台湾,菲律宾第一岛链.而且航母舰队所需的护航战舰,潜艇以及其它能力在当时海军有限的财政状况下也显得不可行.然而现在潜艇派已经建立起了他们的舰队,林指出,现在有迹象显示该是建造航母舰队的时候了."从1980年代开始,为航母做准备的配套工作的努力从来就没有停止过.这些工作包括加深港口,例如Zheanjiang;飞行员的训练'''在中国西部的沙漠,沙子看上去很像水面;增加造船能力;护航的水面战舰和潜艇的建造,".林指出,民族自豪感以及新的战略需要(如海上交通线路的安全,害怕台湾宣布独立等)使得北京给航母的建造工程开了绿灯.最近中国大陆媒体引用中国官员的话说,中国可能最早将在2010年获得其第一艘航母,一所未完工的俄国航母Varyag吸引了大家的注意,这所航母2002年被拖到中国,虽然抵达中国时破损不堪,但在2005年,该舰得到了清洁并重新喷漆,中国官方的声明似乎暗示它在认真考虑继续完成这所航母.
不过创建一支能够和占绝对优势的美国海上力量相抗衡的蓝水海军还是一个遥远的梦想.MCDevitt指出了中国海军战略的其他一些考虑"建立这样的一支海军意味着和中国传统的大陆军主义的分离.不过由于中国解放军一直是陆军占主导地位,一支西方模式的蓝水海军将相当昂贵而且在训练和技术方面是十分困难的."
时代在改变中国海军,建造一支现代蓝水海军的压力既来自北京也来自华盛顿."这些因素的组合加上来自美国的压力将使中国变成一个负责人的危机管理者,能力强大的中国海军能够协助联合国的制裁行动;通过展示实力保护中国的海外利益;保护海上交通的安全;发生自然灾害时的援助;在非洲和南亚展示自己支持陷入困境的盟友的支持,"MCDevitt说道.
China continues to expand the operational and strategic role of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as it buys and builds new warships and submarines and upgrades existing ones.
Chinese shipyards have been building fast attack missile patrol boats, dock landing ships, frigates and destroyers, many with stealthy, high-tech features common on Western warships.
"The Navy budget focuses on building more modern surface ships, such as the FFG 054A frigate, and the technology of Chinese fighting ships is gradually improving," said Andrei Chang, editor of the Hong Kong-based Kanwa Defense Review. "For instance, new HQ16 and HQ9 vertical-launched air defense systems have already been installed on FFG 054A and DDG 052C Chinese Aegis destroyers. The third FFG 054A has been launched in Guangzhou Huanpu shipyard this year."
With these modern shipbuilding capabilities may come the know-how to construct an aircraft carrier, he said.
The PLAN recently completed production of prototypes of three new classes of destroyers: the Luyang 1/Type 052B, Luyang 1/Type 051C and the Luyang 2/Type 052C.
"China launched two Luyang 2/Type 052C destroyers in 2003 and 2004 and there is no open data to suggest that China has decided to undertake series production, or to, instead, build a new type of Aegis[-like] destroyer - perhaps using an upgraded version of the Ukrainian technology active array utilized by the Luyang 2," said Richard Fisher, vice president of the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center.
Russia has provided many of China's new ships, including the Sovremenny-class destroyers and Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, and there are indications that China will continue to rely on Russian naval construction capabilities.
"Russia is currently not building any major surface or submarine warships for China, but Russia is reportedly close to selling China the unique Zubr large amphibious assault hovercraft, a large number of Kamov naval troop assault helicopters, a significant number of Beriev Be-200 turbofan-powered seaplanes, and is selling surface-to-air missile technology for the PLA's Type 054A frigate, now in series production in two shipyards," said Fisher.
China's submarine program has made many in the Japanese and U.S. defense communities nervous. The PLAN operates one nuclear-powered sub, the Xia-class ballistic missile boat, but the bulk of its force are slower and shorter-range diesel attack submarines, such as the Kilo-class and Chinese-built Song-class boats. This preference for diesels over nuclear-powered submarines reinforces China's claim that it is fielding a defensive navy, said retired U.S. Adm. Mike McDevitt of the Center for Naval Analyses.
"Because they are range/endurance limited and move relatively slowly, they create the image of being defensive in nature. Importantly, they fit within the template of East Asian naval developments that has South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia joining Japan, Taiwan and Australia as nations with conventionally powered submarines," McDevitt said.
Aircraft Carrier Questions
There has been much speculation that China is trying to build a blue-water navy made up of aircraft carriers and Aegis-type destroyers that could project force into the Pacific and patrol oil shipping lanes from the Middle East.
Lin Chong-Pin, president of the Taipei-based Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies and former Taiwan vice minister of defense, recalls the famous statement by the godfather of the PLAN, Adm. Lu Huaqing, who once said that he would "not die with eyes closed if China did not acquire aircraft carriers."
That thought went by the wayside in the early 1990s, when, as Lin points out, the "submarine school" became dominant with arguments that aircraft carriers were impractical without a large submarine fleet.
The submarine school claimed carriers would not be able to sail safely beyond checkpoints controlled by Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines under U.S. influence. In addition, the required ships, submarines and other capabilities for a carrier fleet were not feasible given the PLAN's limited financial resources.
However, now that the submarine school has acquired its fleet, Lin argues there are signs that time might be right for a flattop navy.
"Since the late 1980s, the efforts to get the accompanying conditions ready for the carriers have never ceased. They include the deepening of the harbors, such as Zheanjiang; the training of the fighter pilots ... in western China's deserts, where the reflection of the sand is similar to the water surface; increased shipbuilding capabilities; and the accompanying surface combatants and submarines," he said.
Lin said national pride, combined with new strategic realities, such as sea lanes of communication and fears that Taiwan will declare independence, are forcing Beijing to give the green light for a carrier construction program.
Chinese officials recently have been quoted in mainland media reports rsaying that the country could field its first aircraft carrier as soon as 2010, and attention has focused on the Varyag, an incomplete Russian carrier which was towed to China in 2002. Although the ship arrived in a dilapidated condition, it was cleaned and painted in 2005, and several statements by officials this year could indicate the Chinese are seriously considering completing the ship.
However, creating a blue-water navy that would challenge U.S. maritime dominance is still a lofty dream.
McDevitt points to other considerations that formed the PLAN decision: "Developing such a navy would have meant a departure from China's continentalist strategic tradition. Besides being countercultural to an army-dominated PLA, a Western-style blue water navy would have been very expensive and very difficult to make credible in terms of training and technology."
Times are changing for the PLAN and pressure to create a modern navy with blue-water capabilities is coming from both Beijing and Washington.
"This combination of those factors, plus the pressure from the United States to become a responsible stakeholder, are creating ‘demand signals' from a PLA Navy that can support U.N.-sanctioned missions; protect PRC interests abroad with a show of force; protect or evacuate PRC citizens in jeopardy; protect sea lanes of communication; respond to natural disasters; and demonstrate PRC resolve in support of embattled friends in Africa and along the South Asia littoral," said McDevitt. •
Christopher P. Cavas contributed to this report from Washington
