The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions (精装)

基本信息出版社:JOHN WILEY & SONS INC (2010年6月8日)精装:272页ISBN:0470574437条形码:9780470574430产品尺寸及重量:23.2 x 16.2 x 2.6 cm ; 454 gASIN:0470574437

商品描述内容简介There are many books that discuss statistical forecasting modeling; this book is not one of them. This book provides a practical approach for the nonstatistical problems that forecasters face (e.g., what needs to be forecasted, how often a forecast should take place, what is volatility, and problems in business forecasting). The tentative contents is: Chapter 1: Fundamental Issues of Business Forecasting (Basic Principles, Definition of Demand, What to Forecast, What Accuracy is Required, The Naive Forecast, The Politics of Forecasting) Chapter 2: The Problems of Business Forecasting (Demand Volatility, Performance Measurement, Forecasting Without History) Chapter 3: Alternative Solutions to the Forecasting Problem (Standard Forecasting Methods, Failings of the Statistical Approach, Evangelical Forecasting, Supply Chain Engineering, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment, Demand Smoothing, Proactive Collaboration, Pruning) Chapter 4: Forecast Value Added Analysis (The Lean Approach to Forecasting, Data Requirements, Analysis and Reporting, Presenting Results to Management, Streamlining the Process) Chapter 5: Worst Practices in Business Forecasting (Inappropriate Performance Goals, Overfitting Statistical Models, Handling Outliers, Gaming the Metrics, Software Selection, Forecasting When You Shouldn't, Blaming the Forecast) Chapter 6: The Aphorisms of Business Forecasting Chapter 7: Practical First Steps媒体推荐Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecastingWritten in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance. Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting processCouched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.